Análise temporal e espacial da mortalidade por câncer de pulmão em Sergipe de 1980 a 2022

Abstract

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Among the global population, lung cancer is the third most common in women, following breast and colorectal cancers. In men, it is the most frequent and the leading cause of cancer-related death. In Brazil, lung cancer is the third most common in men and the fourth in women. In Sergipe, this disease was the main cause of cancer death for both sexes combined from 2014 to 2018. The goals of this study were to analyze the temporal and spatial trends of lung cancer mortality in Sergipe from 1980 to 2022 and to evaluating whether there is a correlation between mortality and variables such as Municipal Human Development Index and Gross Domestic Product per capita. This is an ecological study with a time series and spatial analysis. Mortality data were obtained from the Mortality Information. Crude and standardized rates were calculated based on census populations and intercensal estimates provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). For the temporal analysis, the Joinpoint Regression Program software from National Cancer Institute version 5.0.2 was used. For spatial analysis, the software QGIS version 3.10 and Terraview version 4.2.2 were used. QGIS uses Sergipe cartographic base and geocodes of the municipalities provided by IBGE to generate thematic maps. Terraview is responsible for spatial statistical analysis and adopts the Local Empirical Bayes model for rate smoothing and the Global Moran Index for evaluating the spatial autocorrelation of standardized and Bayesian rates. Lung cancer accounted for 4,472 deaths over the total period analyzed. Male mortality showed an increasing trend from 1980 to 2007 and has stabilized since then. Female mortality, however, showed an increasing trend throughout the entire period. Aracaju stands out as the municipality with the highest age-adjusted mortality rates in men. For women, the highest adjusted rates were found in the municipalities of Carmópolis and Divina Pastora. The data showed a significant correlation between the Municipal Human Development Index (HDI-M) and age-adjusted mortality rates. In correlation with per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), only the male population showed statistical significance. The present study demonstrates that the curve of lung cancer mortality in women is on the rise. Additionally, it provides relevant information for implementing tobacco control actions and assessing regions with higher mortality risk. These data can aid in directing public resources and organizing health services.