Um modelo dinâmico para prever o movimento de frente frias na América do Sul

Abstract

We propose a very simple physical model to predict cold front flow and penetration through the Brazilian Midwest. This physical model is based on eight hypotheses about the generation, dynamics and dissipation of cold fronts. Unlike dynamic models that rely on many parameters and numerical simulations, this model is a dynamic phenomenological model and only relies on information on average velocity and range of cold fronts. We use Google weather as a source of information, which in turn uses data collected by NASA satellites. We propose here that, in addition to the five air masses that operate in Brazil, we have to consider the existence of a stationary hot air mass in the central west of Brazil in the winter period and fires that act to curb the cold fronts that reach the center west. Through the accumulated data of the last twenty years it is possible to predict the braking force or deceleration of the cold fronts as it penetrates the Brazilian center west. This model is intended to provide information about the future of grain crops in the cerrado and in the wetlands (pantanal).