Reconfiguração das Cadeias Globais de Valor : choques sistêmicos e seus efeitos no comércio internacional (2008-2022)

Abstract

This work analyzes the reshaping that has occurred in Global Value Chains as a result of the impacts generated by the major global crises of the 21st century: the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2012 Eurozone Crisis, the first term of US President Donald Trump (2017-2021), the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia/Ukraine War. The aim is to investigate the impacts these crises had on international trade that motivated the reconfiguration of these productive arrangements. The methodology combines theoretical review with empirical analysis of varied data on imports and exports and more specific information on value chains around the world. The role of these events in the formal and structural modifications that proved necessary for maintaining the functions of Global Value Chains as engines of world trade will be discussed, especially the management of risks that often arise unexpectedly with each new crisis event. The results indicate that learning, the application of resilience techniques, risk management in crisis scenarios, and offshoring movements were the main effects of the events described, concluding that the Financial Crisis highlighted the significant exposure of supply chains to extreme events. Changes in global value chains occurred a few years later, beginning and being tested in the wake of the trade war and attacks on the foundations of international trade carried out by then-US President Donald Trump, and consolidating in the extreme phenomenon of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukraine War.