Perfil epidemiológico das hospitalizações por colecistite e colelitíase biliar no estado de Sergipe: análise de séries temporais entre 2015 e 2024 e projeção até 2030

Abstract

Introduction: Cholelithiasis is a condition of significant global prevalence which, along with its most common complication, acute cholecystitis, constitute one of the main causes of hospitalization for gastrointestinal diseases and are responsible for over one million surgeries worldwide every year. Despite being prevalent and costly, there is a scarcity of regional studies on trends in morbimortality for these conditions. Objectives: To analyze the temporal trend of hospitalizations and deaths due to cholelithiasis and cholecystitis in Sergipe from 2015 to 2024, describe the epidemiological profile, and develop future scenarios through temporal projection until the year 2030. Methodology: This is an ecological time series study that uses secondary data from SIH/SUS (DATASUS) between the years 2015 and 2024. Sociodemographic variables, hospital lethality, and costs within the SUS were examined. Trends were analyzed using Joinpoint Regression, reporting the Annual Percent Change (APC) and the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC). The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used for predictive modeling of hospitalizations and deaths. The adequacy of the series was statistically validated by the Ljung-Box Q test and by calculating the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for predictive performance. Results: A predominance of the female sex in hospitalizations (83%) was verified, in addition to a strong positive correlation between age and the lethality rate, corroborating the global epidemiological pattern. An upward trend in hospitalizations was observed, with a significant acceleration in the post-COVID-19 pandemic period (APC = +92.53%), contrasting with the stability of death rates (AAPC = 0.73%). The SARIMA model projects a demand of 205 hospitalizations/100,000 inhabitants at the end of the series in 2030, with an incidence peak predicted for October 2029 (18.6 hospitalizations/100,000 inhabitants). Conclusion: Therefore, the growth trends and projections denote an urgent reorientation of health policies in Sergipe, focusing on the planning of surgical beds and on prevention actions in Primary Care in view of the predicted increase in hospital demand.