Mapeamento de áreas adequadas para Frankliniella schultzei em clima atual e futuro

Abstract

The thrips, Frankliniella schultzei, is a polyphagous pest spread in several regions of the world. Despite its importance as an agricultural pest, there are still no studies on how environmental variables influence the global distribution of this species. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the potential geographical distribution of F. schultzei based on ecological and climatic data in the current period (2020) and on the scenario of predicting climate change for the future (years 2050 and 2070). The MIROC5 model in the MaxEnt software was used to design the suitable areas in the current year (2020) and in the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario for future projections. To prepare the models were collected a total of 105 species records in the scientific literature and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. The model was validated using the omission rate and area under the curve tests. In the current scenario, areas with suitability for thrips were predicted in North, Central and South America, Europe, Africa, Asia and Oceania. However, a reduction of 16.53% and 2.31% is projected in the suitable areas for the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. These results may be used in the elaboration of strategies to prevent the introduction of the pest in new areas and in the monitoring where it already occurs.