Modelos lineares generalizados aplicados à precificação de seguro agrícola na produtividade de milho dos municípios de Sergipe

Abstract

Agriculture is one of the branches of rural insurance with considerable growth in Brazil, but the insurance market faces difficulties in pricing because it is a risk activity that is difficult to measure because it is subject to adverse climatic phenomena. Thus, agricultural insurance becomes the branch of insurance subject to the greatest number of risks and the most complex pricing, moreover, it does not have a consolidated actuarial theory for calculating premium and expected payments. Therefore, this work proposes as an alternative to calculate and price agricultural insurance using techniques in modeling Generalized Linear Models, and analysis of the relative risk through the coefficient of variation. The database used was obtained from the IBGE Automatic Recovery System (SIDRA), referring to the corn producing municipalities of the State of Sergipe in the period from 2003 to 2019. However, we will have the possibility to verify the fairest price for the agricultural insurance of the corn producers in the state of Sergipe.