Análise da incidência de COVID-19 em Sergipe a partir de sua relação com indicadores sociais

Abstract

COVID-19 is a highly transmissible infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 and is related to multiple factors. The literature indicates that dissemination may be associated with social, economic and environmental issues. The objective of the present study is to verify the relationship between social indicators and the incidence of COVID-19 in the state of Sergipe, for this an ecological, exploratory and analytical study was carried out whose places of analysis were the Sergipe municipalities. Thus, Spearman's statistical correlation methods and a Beta regression model were used, where the dependent variable was the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Sergipe municipalities between 2020 and 2021 and as independent variables, eight social indicators related to the municipalities were selected. From this, it was found that the population density, the IDHM and the rate of adequate sanitary sewage have a significant positive correlation with the incidence of the disease in the state, while the adjustment of the Beta regression model showed that the variables IDHM and urbanization of public roads were significant at the 5% significance level. The study contributes to the understanding of the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Sergipe and opens the way for future analyzes and research that can indicate the true behavior of the disease, as well as for the planning of effective and coherent regional actions.