Um modelo de otimização linear inteira mista para dimensionamento de reservatórios incorporando índices de desempenho : abordagens determinística e estocástica

Abstract

Tools capable of assisting in the design of surface water reservoir systems, resulting from the construction of dams, in the face of hydrological uncertainties, are of great importance for the sustainable management of water resources. This study proposes, implements and tests an optimal sizing strategy for water storage reservoirs that takes the minimum allowed number of failure periods (measure of reliability) and the maximum allowed failure magnitude (measure of vulnerability) as input. The optimization model considers that the reservoir releases follow the standard operating policy – as in typical design procedures that account for failure – and is compared to an alternative mixed-integer linear programming model that uses an open-loop release policy. Deterministic and implicit stochastic versions of the model are presented in order to be applied to various types of problems. As case studies, example problems were created, as well as data from the Sobradinho dam were used. The results indicate that high reliability and low vulnerabilities require larger storage capacities, and the opposite is also confirmed (in the different tested scenarios), in addition to yielding capacities adequate to the used operation policy. The tested examples also confirm that greater capabilities are needed for more sustainable and less risky systems.