Pandemia da COVID-19 e abandono escolar : uma análise para os municípios do estado de Sergipe

Abstract

The present dissertation aims to analyze the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on school dropout in the municipalities of the state of Sergipe, paying particular attention to Elementary School. In order to achieve this purpose, the current work uses the econometric method of unconditional quantile regression, which estimates different effects between the response and the covariates along the quantiles of the distribution of the response variable. The estimates, from the empirical model considered, point out that, for Sergipe municipalities, the increase of one unit in the average of total deaths per capita by COVID-19 in 2020, per ten thousand inhabitants, increases the quantile 50 percent of the variation, from 2019 to 2020, of the elementary school dropout rate by around 0.08 percentage points. The results also show that the increase of R$1.00 in the average per capita emergency aid received per month in 2020, per one hundred inhabitants, as well as the growth of one unit in the average percentage variation of the job stock, the month of December, and the variation in the percentage of teachers with a degree (or bachelor's degree with pedagogical complementation) in the same area of the subject they teach, between 2019 and 2020, reduces the same quantile of the response variable that it comes, by approximately 0.14, 0.04, and 0.04 percentage points, in that order. Therefore, when analyzing the municipalities of the federative unit of Sergipe, direct effects of the number of deaths by COVID-19 on the risks of dropping out of school in the elementary school stage are identified, as well as inverse effects of emergency aid and expansions of employment and percentage of better qualified teachers.