Expansão do crédito no Brasil: a atuação das fintechs no sistema financeiro e seus possíveis efeitos sobre a inadimplência

Abstract

This study explores the expansion of fintechs within the Brazilian National Financial System (SFN) and their potential effects on default rates. Fintechs, financial companies that use technology to offer more accessible and efficient services, have been challenging the traditional banking structures since their emergence, particularly after regulation by the Central Bank in 2016. The primary objective of the research is to investigate whether the increase in credit access promoted by these companies contributes to a rise in default rates within the financial sector. Utilizing a quantitative approach, the dissertation analyzes data from the Central Bank's Credit Information System (SCR) as well as from research institutes like IBGE, covering the period from 2016 to 2023. Linear regression models were applied to assess the relationship between fintech credit and default rates, also considering economic and social variables such as interest rates, income, unemployment, and the IPCA. The results indicate that while fintechs have shown significant growth, their direct impact on default rates is currently limited due to the small volume of credit they represent in the sector. However, as these companies continue to grow, the impact of macroeconomic and social variables may become more pronounced, requiring careful management of credit risks. The study concludes that despite the increasing importance of fintechs in the SFN, other economic factors have greater potential to influence default rates in the short term. The expansion of fintechs necessitates continuous attention to risk mitigation strategies and monitoring of economic conditions that could affect the stability of the financial system.