Vulnerabilidade socioespacial à violência letal na Região Metropolitana de Aracaju (RMA) entre 2010 e 2022

Abstract

The Aracaju Metropolitan Region (RMA), despite not being among the largest or most populous metropolitan areas in Brazil and long being regarded as a peaceful place to live, has stood out nationally, particularly in its capital, due to lethal violence. This study investigates the vulnerability to such violence and its relationship with potential social determinants within this metropolitan context. Employing a comparative approach, the research utilized secondary data within a longitudinal study design covering the period from 2010 to 2022, integrating quantitative and qualitative methodologies with field data collection. The study was guided by the hypothesis that lethal violence, represented by Intentional Violent Deaths (IVDs), exhibits heterogeneous spatial relationships with social development, measured by a Social Development Index (SDI). The analysis mapped areas where high SDI values coincided with low lethal violence rates, areas where low SDI values correlated with high incidence, and areas where no clear correlation was observed. To explore these patterns, a Synthetic-Analytical Model of Social Vulnerability to Lethal Violence (VSVL) was developed for 2010. Complementing the model, field research was conducted in 2024 across eight selected neighborhoods, two in each of the four municipalities within the RMA, to assess how the relationship between social development and lethal violence was perceived by residents and representatives of formal and informal violence control institutions from 2010 to 2022. The spatial analysis of the 2010 VSVL revealed that most of the RMA territory fell within low to very low vulnerability categories, while high to very high vulnerability areas were primarily associated with urban zones, more intensely in the capital and, to varying degrees, in other municipalities. Field research findings, analyzed through Bardin’s (2016) content analysis framework, identified four explanatory categories of lethality in the RMA: “socioeconomic deprivation”, “the illicit drug Market”, “low collective efficacy”, and “family disintegration”. The analysis of these categories, in conjunction with the 2010 VSVL mapping and the 2022 lethality distribution, demonstrated that social deprivation alone does not fully explain the spatial distribution of lethal violence. While lower SDI values were generally associated with higher rates of IVDs, some more developed areas also exhibited significant concentrations of violent deaths, whereas certain disadvantaged areas had lower incidences. Overall, the findings indicate that, beyond population density and urbanization, social inequalities exacerbated by economic deprivation and the illicit drug market were the primary drivers of lethal violence, with the latter being the most influential, particularly in areas where economic deprivation played a lesser role. Conversely, integrated – albeit limited and sporadic – efforts of formal and informal social controls (public security interventions coupled with community-based initiatives fostering collective efficacy) contributed to reducing social vulnerability to lethal violence, as observed in part of the Santa Maria neighborhood in Aracaju. In other analyzed neighborhoods, reductions in violence (except in João Alves) lacked clear causality, as no significant integration between formal and informal controls was evident. Finally, the study identified seven analytical inferences characterizing lethal violence trends in the RMA from 2010 to 2022: social determinants of violence, spatial persistence, socio-spatial heterogeneity, urban structuring linked to social controls, the influence of the illicit drug market, normalization of selective lethal violence, and environmental externalities.