Reflexo das crises financeiras no custeio dos benefícios da previdência complementar em planos de contribuição definida

Abstract

This work aims to analyze the impact of the financial crisis caused by covid-19 on pension plans in the defined contribution modality in the Closed Complementary Pension Entity (EFPC). To accomplish this, scenarios were prepared simulating financial crises and analyzes of behavior in the financial market, through inflation and the basic interest rate in Brazil, causing devaluation of assets, thus impacting on the profitability of allocations of the defined contribution plan. Using the R software, version 4.1.0, simulations and data analysis were generated. The fund's profitability in the scenario without crisis was calculated by the average of the difference between the historical inflation given by the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in Brazil and the Selic rate, both in the range from 1996 to 2019. For the other scenarios it was including the period of the Covid-19 pandemic in order to cover the period 2020 to 2022, based on the data collected on the IPEADATA website. Four scenarios were simulated: I) without the presence of a crisis; II) one year duration of the crisis; III) two years duration of the crisis and; IV) three years duration of the crisis. The results show how much the crisis period affected the funds with a reduction in the amount of approximately 9% during one year, an impact that spreads with the increase in the duration of the crisis, increasing the probability that the fund expected by the participant would not be reached, directly impacting the future value of the benefits.