Foresight estratégico: aplicação de um Framework para a construção de cenários futuros na ABRH-SE

Abstract

This dissertation is based on the idea that non-governmental organizations (NGOs) face various difficulties in surviving and maintaining relevance in unstable environments. This highlights the need for an adaptable, future-oriented strategic approach, moving beyond a linear view of planning strategic actions. To address this scenario of change, we propose the application of Strategic Foresight, using methods that offer a conceptual framework for investigating possible and desirable futures. This allows NGOs to guide their strategic choices in an uncertain environment. From this perspective, the objective of this study is to describe the application of Andy Hines and Peter Bishop's Foresight Framework at ABRH-SE for building future scenarios and actions. This dissertation's strategy is to conduct a single case study, adopting a qualitative approach with exploratory and descriptive characteristics. The sources of evidence used are semi-structured interviews, documentation, and participant observation. This work presents the application of the Foresight Framework as its result, detailing which steps were applied, which were adapted, and which were possible to implement. The research concludes that using the Foresight Framework at ABRH-SE enabled the creation of four future scenarios, one of which is the preferred scenario for the NGO. Furthermore, the study demonstrated the Framework's flexibility, highlighting its applicability in different organizational contexts, as no academic research with this specific application proposal in an NGO was identified.