Análise de fatores causais e previsão temporal de acidentes por Bothrops no Brasil

Abstract

nakebite envenomation represents a significant public health challenge, especially in tropical and subtropical developing countries where healthcare systems are precarious, antivenoms are scarce, and warmer climates favor the abundance of snakes. This medical emergency primarily affects impoverished individuals living in rural communities, due to their high exposure to risk areas. Brazil is among the countries with the highest annual occurrence of snakebite cases. In the country, snake species of the Bothrops genus are responsible for most recorded accidents. In Chapter 1 of this dissertation, were employed spatial analyses to identify the determinants of Bothrops snakebite incidence in different regions of Brazil. Across the country, significantly higher snakebite incidence rates were observed in areas with higher percentages of native forest and historical forest loss. Additionally, we found that areas with higher temperatures and precipitation levels in the South, as well as higher climatic suitability for the B. jararaca species in the Southeast, exhibited significantly higher snakebite incidence rates. On the other hand, areas with higher percentages of pasture exhibited significantly lower snakebite incidence rates. In Chapter 2, we employed the Prophet time series model to develop snakebite incidence prediction models for each Brazilian region, considering the influence of covariates on predictive models. The Prophet model proved to be an effective tool in predicting snakebite incidence. We found that the Prophet model integrated with the covariate of maximum temperature in the South, forest fires in the North and Midwest, and a model without covariate integration in the Northeast and Southeast regions, demonstrated the best performance, indicating its potential application in epidemiological surveillance of this public health issue. Understanding the determinants and predicting snakebite incidence can help policymakers, public health authorities, and healthcare professionals develop and implement prevention and mitigation measures, thereby reducing the number of cases and associated adverse impacts.