O Programa Bolsa Família e o seu impacto no PIB dos municípios sergipanos (2004 - 2012)

Abstract

This paper discusses on the Family Grant Program, framed as a public policy of institutionalized income distribution in 2004. Whereas the GMP contributes to the distribution of income in the poorest regions of Brazil, like the municipalities in Sergipe, this study aims answer is no impact of direct income transfer GMP in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of municipalities in Sergipe. It has been in this study the application of a model that checks among the variables values allocated to municipalities with reference to the Family Grant Program - VPBF, revenues from royalties, share of the ICMS, added value - agriculture, industry, services, transfers received concerning the benefits paid by Social Security (retirement and survivorship), population numbers and the independent variable (to be explained) - GDP of each municipality, which more impact on the GDP of municipalities in Sergipe. The analysis consists in the use of data analysis techniques in panel combination with transverse time series analysis, considering the aforementioned variables. The results, considering the various applied demonstrate that GMP has no impact on GDP of the cities studied. For future work the proposal to hold a regional study considering the economics site.