O impacto da criminalidade nos conceitos do seguro de veículos

Abstract

The main objective of the present study was to verify whether there is an influence of crime on the characteristics of insurance. Car insurance arose from the need of man to protect himself from future risks. The methodology used in this research was qualitative and quantitative in nature, in which a literature review and a descriptive research were conducted. The data were extracted from the Institute of Applied Economic Research, with the purpose of analyzing the growth of crime, data from the State Department of Traffic of Sergipe were used, referring to the numbers of theft and robbery in the period from 2013 to 2019 and some data were extracted from the Superintendence of private insurance, in order to verify the most stolen and stolen vehicles in Brazil and specifically in the state of Sergipe. For the analyses, time series were used in order to verify which is the best fit for the model, where the Arima model was tested, but which was not considered good, so its Mape was 11.51. The Sarima model was applied, in which the Mape model was 10.76 not being suitable for series and the Holt-Winters model with the Mape value of 6.01, concluding that the Holt-Winters was the best adjustment for the series, noting that the growth of theft and robbery in the state of Sergipe in 2016 grew and in March 2019, was considered quite significant.