Regra de decisão alternativa e evaporação incorporadas ao método Fletcher-Ponnambalam para operação de reservatórios

Abstract

This work applies explicit stochastic optimization to the operation of the Sobradinho reservoir, located in Northeastern Brazil. The Fletcher-Ponnambalam (FP) method, which has already been successfully applied to several case studies in the literature, is addressed and implemented in an open-source programming environment. As an explicit stochastic optimization problem, the FP method requires the assumption of a probability distribution for the reservoir in ows, in order to solve integrals referring to the equations of the statistical moments of storage, as well as the probabilities of containment (storage contained between the minimum and maximum levels), de cit (below minimum) and spill (above maximum). The main contribution of this research was to incorporate a new operational rule to the method as well as evaporation losses in an explicit way. With this proposal, the optimization model avoids typical simpli cations and explicitly incorporates the variables in its modeling, in addition to following a more sophisticated operating rule. The results, compared to the current formulation of the FP method and to those generated by a Monte Carlo simulation of the monthly reservoir operation, proved to be very satisfactory.