Complexidade econômica e desigualdade: análise da trajetória de desenvolvimento nos países do “resto”

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the intersections between Alice Amsden's The Rise of the Rest and economic complexity theory, aiming to elucidate how economic complexity influences income inequality in the "Rest" countries discussed by Amsden. Through the application of OLS, pooled OLS, and dynamic panel regression models—specifically the GMM system—to a sample of 132 countries from 1990 to 2019, the analysis reveals that economic complexity generally exerts a negative effect on income inequality, suggesting that more complex economies tend to exhibit more equitable income distributions. However, disaggregated analyses reveal that the impact of economic complexity on inequality is non linear and varies significantly across regions. Specifically, in the "Rest" countries of Latin America, the relationship between economic complexity and inequality is positive, indicating that greater economic complexity is associated with increased income inequality in these nations. Conversely, in the "Rest" of East Asia, the effect is negative, implying that higher economic complexity contributes to reduced inequality. These findings underscore the divergent development trajectories of the "Rest" countries and highlight the importance of regional contexts in economic policymaking, demonstrating that the effects of economic complexity can differ based on the economic and social structures of individual countries.