Despesas com pessoal e efetividade da gestão municipal: foco em educação e infraestrutura em Sergipe

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the relationship between the level of personnel expenditure commitment and the effectiveness of municipal management, focusing on the areas of Education and Infrastructure across the 75 municipalities of Sergipe, Brazil, from 2020 to 2024. The methodology adopted a descriptive, correlational, and quantitative approach, using longitudinal panel data. Descriptive measures and GAMLSS regression models were applied, employing a beta distribution and mixed effects. The methodology was based on the creation of a synthetic indicator resulting from the combination of multiple individual indicators previously normalized and integrated into a single scale, named the Fiscal-Social Effectiveness Composite Index (ICEFIS). The results indicate high inter-municipal heterogeneity in both fiscal rigidity and the provision of essential public services. On average, personnel expenditures exceeded the prudential limit established by the Fiscal Responsibility Law for most of the period, showing a downward trend only in 2024, which signals a recent process of aggregate fiscal adjustment. The overall ICEFIS showed an upward trajectory between 2020 and 2022, followed by a slight decline and stabilization in 2023–2024, remaining, on average, at an intermediate level on the unit scale. Econometric evidence suggests a statistically significant association between fiscal rigidity and fiscal-social performance, reinforcing the importance of budget balance policies combined with improvements in the efficiency of public resource allocation. The theoretical and methodological contributions lie in expanding the understanding of the links between fiscal responsibility and the effectiveness of public policies, as well as in advancing methodology through the application of the GAMLSS model with mixed effects and the proposal of a replicable index. Its relevance and originality stem from simultaneously examining fiscal variables and outcomes in strategic social areas, thereby providing empirical evidence to support fiscal and social management policies. Finally, the social and managerial contributions include the provision of analytical tools that may assist public managers and oversight bodies in decision-making, in planning more effective policies, and in the efficient allocation of resources at the municipal level.