Análise da inadimplência de Microempreendedores Individuais (MEI) no estado de Sergipe : uma abordagem estatística baseada em aprendizado não supervisionado

Abstract

This study analyzed the default rate of Individual Microentrepreneurs (MEIs) in the state of Sergipe, considering the growing economic relevance of MEIs in the Brazilian scenario and the financial impacts resulting from non-compliance with tax and credit obligations. The research aimed to identify socioeconomic, financial, and behavioral patterns associated with the default rate of Sergipe's MEIs, using a statistical approach based on Gower's Distance and the K-Medoids (PAM) clustering technique. Methodologically, the research was characterized as quantitative, descriptive, and applied, using secondary data extracted from the Open Data Portal of the Central Bank of Brazil, referring to the period from January to December 2024. The analyses were performed using RStudio software, involving procedures for processing, normalization, and clustering of qualitative and quantitative variables. The results showed a predominance of males among the analyzed micro-entrepreneurs (MEIs), a higher concentration of default among entrepreneurs with intermediate incomes, and a strong relationship between the use of loans and financing and an increased risk of default. Statistical segmentation allowed the identification of six distinct clusters, demonstrating heterogeneous profiles of financial behavior among micro-entrepreneurs. It is concluded that factors such as poor financial organization, frequent use of credit, and limitations related to economic planning directly influence the levels of default among MEIs in Sergipe, reinforcing the need for actions focused on financial education, strengthening business management, and developing public policies to support small entrepreneurs.