Análise de viabilidade econômica de uma usina termelétrica a gás natural em ciclo combinado: uma abordagem pela teoria das opções reais

Abstract

The proposal of this work was applied in order to allow investment in a long-term power plant project. Natural gas using combined cycle technology through the application of the response. The first step was to build the DCF of the project without flawlessness. When estimating the volatility of the project return, the value of the real option was calculated. An analysis indicating the value of the expansion option increased the value of the project, from R $ 207,709,992.00 to R $ 308,513,601.1. Proving, therefore, the best way for the development of a project, given that the uncertainty remains stable. From the analysis presented above, it is concluded that both a TOR and an analysis by NPV risk metrics assert an economic viability of the project under study.