Produção de açúcar no Brasil: estimativas de um modelo econométrico para mudanças institucionais

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to analyze how institutional changes affected the sugar production curve in Brazil. These changes are punctuated by three events. Innovation in sugar became the most suitable product to handling and transport. The sector deregulation that changes the governance mechanisms of the relationship between the companies in their trade in the sugar market. And the drop in subsidies to European production, which encourages domestic production. The changes brought about by these events are subjected to statistical analysis (hypothesis testing and linear regression). Four hypotheses were tested on changes in sugar production curve in Brazil. The Hypothesis test was used to test the statistical significance growth analysis of the Brazilian sugar production before these events. It is noted that the average sugar production was changed after the institutional changes. The econometric model showed that the slope of the sugar production curve changed after each event, although the development of VHP sugar and the deregulation of the sector have impacted more production than the decline in subsidies in Europe.