Impactos econômicos de curto e longo prazo da usina termelétrica Porto de Sergipe

Abstract

The objective of this dissertation is to assess the magnitude of the regional and sectoral impacts in the short and long term, that is, the construction phase (2017-2019) and the operation phase (2020-2030), respectively, of the Thermoelectric Plant (UTE) Porto de Sergipe , with a view to the problem of regional inequalities. The work is divided into two complementary essays that use general equilibrium modeling as the main methodology. Thus, the first essay seeks to analyze the impacts of the construction phase of the thermoelectric plant, using an interregional input-product system from Sergipe, base year 2009, consisting of 82 sectors and 5 regions: 3 sub-regions of Sergipe, rest of the Northeast and rest of Brazil. In addition, it aims to assess the longterm effects of investment, by incorporating the impact of the use of additional capital stock on sectoral production in the input-output model. The results show that the region where the plant is located would suffer the greatest economic impact. In the background, the rest of Brazil stands out for having been the biggest destination for the spills, a fact that may indicate the low capacity of the other regions to absorb the demand generated by the structural investment. Regarding the sector analysis, the results showed that the most impacted activities would be those that are more capital intensive, typical of an investment for construction. In the long-term analysis, it was noted that, over a 10-year horizon, the impacts would still be considerable, even with the depreciation of capital. The second essay, in turn, aims to assess both short-term and long-term impacts, using a dynamic and interregional Computable General Equilibrium (EGC) model, TERM-BR, specified for 28 regions and 51 sectors. The innovation of this work consists of disaggregating the state of Sergipe in two regions: the Metropolitan region of Aracaju and the rest of Sergipe, in order to analyze in more detail the spatial distribution of the impacts of this structuring investment. The results point to a relevant impact in the metropolitan region, with low leakage to the rest of Sergipe and other states of the federation. Among the interstate impacts, however, Bahia and Alagoas stand out. The sectors most affected in the Metropolitan Region of Aracaju would be more related to the dynamics of construction and operation of a structuring investment, in view of the demand for inputs and services in these phases, such as Maintenance and repair services, Services provided to companies, Cement and other non-metallic mineral products, among others.