Ensaios econômicos sobre riscos e incertezas

Abstract

Faced with uncertainties about the future conditions of macroeconomic equilibrium and microeconomic fundamentals, the main objective of this dissertation is to explore the advantages of applying the Financial Options Theory in the economic evaluation of capital projects and to analyze the real behavioral effects in the firms' decisions. The specific objectives are: Analyze the historical and scientific formation of the concept of risk and uncertainty; discuss how man cares about risk; and, to approach the various forms of risk measurement, up to the present times where there is a predominance of quantitative methods, giving emphasis to the Black-Scholes and Binomial models for options princing. The work consists of three essays: one historical, one mathematical-theoretical and the other applied-mathematical. Answering the question of what are the behavioral effects in the firm's decisions after using one of the options as a project analysis methodology, this dissertation presents a formal attempt to combine the study of traditional finance with firm theory and corporate strategies to compose a detailed narrative of risk management that goes beyond the field of hedge, competitive advantage (essential aspect of the strategy study) and neoclassical pure (and isolated) premises for Firm Theory. The third essay presents the most innovative part of the dissertation as an attempt to gather analisis and insights from different functional areas into a more comprehensive picture of the economic theory of risks and uncertainties.